Underrated - Jeff Francis
I'll be taking a look at the second round of the NCAA Tournament later, but I thought I would get back on track with a little fantasy baseball talk.
I've been in some trade talks, and one guy I am targeting as a cheap, underrated option is the Rockies' Jeff Francis. Often overlooked because he pitches in Colorado, Francis is a bargain that offers 15-win potential and the upside to build on his past two seasons of work. Taken #9 overall in the 2002 draft by the Rockies, Francis breezed through the minors, dominating at every level at a young age. He posted an impressive 2.71 ERA in 346 minor league innings, with a 1.00 WHIP and a near 5:1 K/BB ratio. Rated as the #24 prospect in baseball by Baseball America in 2005, Francis won 14 games as rookie for the Rockies, but struggled to the tune of a 1.62 WHIP and a .311 batting average against. 2006 was better for Francis as he reached the 199 IP mark and posted a 1.29 WHIP. And while his WHIP and ERA went up slightly this past season, Francis improved his strikeout rate and lowered his walks and ended up winning 17 games for Colorado. The Rockies will be a solid squad in 2008, meaning Francis should again win 15+ but several other factors point to a 'breakout' season for Francis in '08. First, his improving K/BB ratio point to good things to come. Second, while his groundball ratio has stayed roughly the same the last several years, his .321 BABIP was above average and out of whack with the defense behind him. The Rockies own arguably the best defense in the NL and maybe in all of the majors, and as a team they have up a .298 BABIP. One can expect Francis' BABIP to close that gap, which bodes well for all of his numbers. Third, Francis is in his 27-year-old season, so the Canadian native could really start to peak.
So in summation, don't forget about Francis just because he pitches in Colorado. While Coors Field is still an offensive park, it is no longer the home run haven it once was. I could easily see Francis winning 15-17 games with a sub 4.0 ERA, 170 strikeouts and a WHIP around 1.25. Great value for a guy going on average as the 113th pick in CBS drafts.
I've been in some trade talks, and one guy I am targeting as a cheap, underrated option is the Rockies' Jeff Francis. Often overlooked because he pitches in Colorado, Francis is a bargain that offers 15-win potential and the upside to build on his past two seasons of work. Taken #9 overall in the 2002 draft by the Rockies, Francis breezed through the minors, dominating at every level at a young age. He posted an impressive 2.71 ERA in 346 minor league innings, with a 1.00 WHIP and a near 5:1 K/BB ratio. Rated as the #24 prospect in baseball by Baseball America in 2005, Francis won 14 games as rookie for the Rockies, but struggled to the tune of a 1.62 WHIP and a .311 batting average against. 2006 was better for Francis as he reached the 199 IP mark and posted a 1.29 WHIP. And while his WHIP and ERA went up slightly this past season, Francis improved his strikeout rate and lowered his walks and ended up winning 17 games for Colorado. The Rockies will be a solid squad in 2008, meaning Francis should again win 15+ but several other factors point to a 'breakout' season for Francis in '08. First, his improving K/BB ratio point to good things to come. Second, while his groundball ratio has stayed roughly the same the last several years, his .321 BABIP was above average and out of whack with the defense behind him. The Rockies own arguably the best defense in the NL and maybe in all of the majors, and as a team they have up a .298 BABIP. One can expect Francis' BABIP to close that gap, which bodes well for all of his numbers. Third, Francis is in his 27-year-old season, so the Canadian native could really start to peak.
So in summation, don't forget about Francis just because he pitches in Colorado. While Coors Field is still an offensive park, it is no longer the home run haven it once was. I could easily see Francis winning 15-17 games with a sub 4.0 ERA, 170 strikeouts and a WHIP around 1.25. Great value for a guy going on average as the 113th pick in CBS drafts.
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