Overrated - Albert Pujols and Dan Uggla

I figured Ryan was covering the underrated side, I'll take the over on this one.

Don't get me wrong, when 100% Pujols is as good of a hitter as there is this year. However, considering he plays at a position with a lot of solid players and tons of value picks out there, that he's hurting already, and that he plays of a team that will struggle to contend, I see him a very weak first rounder at best. Personally, I wouldn't take him with a top 10 pick, and although it would be difficult, I may even let him slip by given a late second rounder in a standard ten team draft. I personally see the Cardinals faltering big time and shutting Pujols down earlier rather than later. Buyers beware!

Of course, that is one pick that everyone has definitely started leaning towards, but here's another one: Dan Uggla. Going on average 75th in CBS standard drafts, they currently have him ranked as the 6th best second baseman. Don't get me wrong, getting 30 homer power out of second base is great, but at the cost of a sub .250 batting average? Unless it's a OBP/OPS league (where he gets a bit more value because he walks), I would definitely look past him at the Kelly Johnson/Ian Kinsler/Howie Kendrick tier.

All that said, I think he will drop off big time in his two biggest categories as well: runs and homers. Last year he led second baseman in runs and homers, but that was before big Miguel Cabrera left his place hitting behind Uggla. Now pitchers can either pitch around Uggla or pitch him more aggresively. I foresee him dropping under 25 homers, and maybe even below 90 runs. Still solid numbers, but would you rather take a guy like that with limited upside, or a Kinsler who could legitimately go 20/20 with 100 runs and 100 RBI's no problem, and has upside for even more. I'd take the upside every time in that spot.

Also, to note - Ryan is going to rue the day he took Pat Burrell over David Wright in that spot. RUEEEEEE THE DAY!!!!

Baseball is Here!!

Well it's 3a.m. PST here in Vegas and the Oakland-Boston game just got underway from Japan. This is the best month-long stretch of sports of the year. Not only do we have March Madness, but the start of the baseball season, the upcoming Masters golf tournament, along with the NFL Draft at the end of April to cap things off. But since baseball is on tv, I thought I would post my team of sluggers for my HR Pool this year. The competition works as such:

Pick 6 players from the following list: Alex Rodriguez, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Carlos Pena, Adam Dunn, Matt Holliday, Jim Thome, David Ortiz, Lance Berkman, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Bruan, Carlos Beltran, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, Albert Pujols (Top 15 HR hitters from last season). Then pick any other 9 players to round out a 15-player team. For an extra fee, teams can also select a reserve hitter to replace one of the original 15 half way through the season. This is how my team turned out.

1. Alex Rodriguez

2. Prince Fielder

3. Ryan Howard

4. Miguel Cabrera

5. Adam Dunn

6. David Ortiz

7. Aramis Ramirez

8. Nick Swisher

9. Vladmir Guerrero

10. Justin Morneau

11. Mark Teixeria

12. Brad Hawpe

13. Pat Burrell

14. Andruw Jones

15. Travis Hafner

UTILITY REPLACEMENT PLAYER: Paul Konerko

My last two spots came down to Burrell/Hawpe battling it out with David Wright and Manny Ramirez. I love David Wright (who doesn't) but I see him more as a 25 home run guy than a high 30's type, where as Pat the Bat has 40 home run power in him. As for Manny, I think he is due for a big year as he is in a contract year, but his age is a major concern and I'm not sure he will break the 35 homer mark. I could see a .300-30-120 year for Manny, but I feel his age/injury risk is too much and Hawpe could really bust out for 35-38 homers in Coors Field. The winner should take home around $1300 so hopefully my boys come through in a big way!

Capuano Out - Parra In?

Manny Parra

According to The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, Brewers SP Chris Capuano has a torn UCL (ulnar collateral ligament) and is out for the forseable future. It is very possible Capuano will need his second Tommy John surgery. Obviously this means it is safe to drop the lefty, but more importantly, the injury has major ramifications on the Brewers rotation. Reportedly, the rotation (with Gallardo on the DL) will be Ben Sheets-Jeff Suppan-Manny Parra-Dave Bush-Claudio Vargas, with Carlos Villanueva getting optioned down to AAA. With a rotation spot now locked up, at least to start the season, Manny Parra needs to be picked up in all leagues. He had a lights out spring and has the stuff to be a top of the rotation starter. Between AA and AAA last year, Parra posted a 2.45 ERA in 106 innings of work and was impressive during his brief stint in the majors. If he is still available, now is the time to grab Parra.

Underrated - Jeff Francis

I'll be taking a look at the second round of the NCAA Tournament later, but I thought I would get back on track with a little fantasy baseball talk.

I've been in some trade talks, and one guy I am targeting as a cheap, underrated option is the Rockies' Jeff Francis. Often overlooked because he pitches in Colorado, Francis is a bargain that offers 15-win potential and the upside to build on his past two seasons of work. Taken #9 overall in the 2002 draft by the Rockies, Francis breezed through the minors, dominating at every level at a young age. He posted an impressive 2.71 ERA in 346 minor league innings, with a 1.00 WHIP and a near 5:1 K/BB ratio. Rated as the #24 prospect in baseball by Baseball America in 2005, Francis won 14 games as rookie for the Rockies, but struggled to the tune of a 1.62 WHIP and a .311 batting average against. 2006 was better for Francis as he reached the 199 IP mark and posted a 1.29 WHIP. And while his WHIP and ERA went up slightly this past season, Francis improved his strikeout rate and lowered his walks and ended up winning 17 games for Colorado. The Rockies will be a solid squad in 2008, meaning Francis should again win 15+ but several other factors point to a 'breakout' season for Francis in '08. First, his improving K/BB ratio point to good things to come. Second, while his groundball ratio has stayed roughly the same the last several years, his .321 BABIP was above average and out of whack with the defense behind him. The Rockies own arguably the best defense in the NL and maybe in all of the majors, and as a team they have up a .298 BABIP. One can expect Francis' BABIP to close that gap, which bodes well for all of his numbers. Third, Francis is in his 27-year-old season, so the Canadian native could really start to peak.

So in summation, don't forget about Francis just because he pitches in Colorado. While Coors Field is still an offensive park, it is no longer the home run haven it once was. I could easily see Francis winning 15-17 games with a sub 4.0 ERA, 170 strikeouts and a WHIP around 1.25. Great value for a guy going on average as the 113th pick in CBS drafts.

NCAA Tournament 1st Round Thoughts

How dare you bet against the Cardinal!


Well I tried to save David's bracket, but he wouldn't listen and picked Cornell to upset the mighty Cardinal! Never bet against Stanford, they have covered their last four tournament games, ride them all the way! The early line for their second round matchup has Stanford at -3 against Marquette, and I like the Cardinal again! Another trend I've noticed during the first two days of the Big Dance is taking the Under in the first half and the Over in the second. Teams are really seeming to feel out their opponent early on and then exploding for big points after the half. Just a random tidbit after betting quite a bit these first two days.

As for my first two days (bracket and betting) starting with Thursday - A group of us met up at the Hard Rock where they turned the Joint (where they hold concerts) into a gigantic March Madness orgy! So I officially hate OJ Mayo and USC. Not only did I have them making a run to the Elite Eight, but all of us also had big time bucks riding on them Thursday night, but their complete impotence in regards to rebounding left our whole group officially hating Tim Floyd. UNLV looked great and we made a great pick there, but got completely burned after picking the Under for the game and losing out by half a point! And this after Kent State scored a tournament record low 10 points in the first half! Crazy! Baylor looked awful despite the numbers saying they should have put up a good fight against Purdue, and that one stung the pocket book a bit, Doh! I didn't put any money on Georgia, but I do feel sort of bad for them after their unbelievable run this year. After being up big early against Xavier, the Bulldogs simply couldn't hold on, but I still salute you Georgia! As for Xavier, they are nasty tough, don't sleep on these guys. Pittsburgh and Notre Dame both looked awfully impressive, showing just how tough the Big East really is. It ranked #5 in regards to Conference RPI, but Big East teams are really physical and they had a very impressive first two days, going 7-1 overall, wowza! Finally, Arizona was busted out by Joe Alexander and West Virginia, we had a large sum riding on the Wildcats which would have saved our day, but alas, we finished losers for Thursday :( * Side Note - We did win a free night stay at the Hard Rock and a free cabana at the pool, so value wise we actually made out ok! I also put $60 on red and hit, which then paid for a tasty free lunch at Pink Taco!

Friday featured big time upsets, but luckily I ended the day slightly ahead thanks to North Carolina covering their -25.5 line. The biggest surprise for me had to be the crazy comeback staged by Villanova, I had Clemson making a run to the Sweet Sixteen, so my bracket isn't in the greatest of shape :( UCONN was a huge bust this year, one of the few downers for the Big East, but an early injury to starting point guard AJ Price played a major part in the Huskies loss. If not for UCONN's heartbreak, the Big East would have gone 8-0 for the first two days, just thought I would re-iterate how impressive the Big East has been. Indiana's poor performance did surprise me, I thought they would handle Arkansas, but they looked terrible and with DJ White and Eric Gordon heading to the draft, and the coaching situation a complete mess, Indiana looks to be in big trouble next year. Mississippi came through for me with a late run against Oregon but overall a much slower day in terms of betting for me since I had to work tonight, but a much bigger day in regards to upsets and excitement. I look forward to an exciting second round!

As for a quick update on my bracket, so far I have started really bad, going 21-12 in the first round, but 7 out of 8 of my Elite Eight teams are still alive so I could still make up some major ground later. Since I haven't posted my picks, here is what my Final Four looks like this -
Tennessee
Kansas
Texas
UCLA
I have Tennessee squaring off against UCLA in the National Championship game with the Bruins emerging victorious in a high scoring, exciting final game. I really like Tennessee this year, but I think UCLA will prove to be too much. So there's my college basketball update, hopefully I will fare a little better financially in the second round this weekend!

The Upset Special

Pack Your Bags Tree!

Alright, have to talk some March Madness right now. Just going to do a quick breakdown on what I think will happen, with my final four, champion, and my choice for upset special.

Final Four: North Carolina, Kansas, Texas, and UCLA.

Championship: Kansas 78, Texas 74.

Upset special: Stanford loses first round to Cornell. This may be the dumbest pick ever, but it's my dumb pick. I live by my instincts, I die by my instincts. I watched them play a few times this season, and found them to be an unimpressive team who couldn't make a shot when they need it. In fact, besides UCLA, I see the Pac 10 laying a big egg this tourney. Avoid the Pac 10!

Ryan's World Series Bets

Ok, so I have been in a major betting frenzy with the start of March Madness upon us. I will be extending my betting to the Masters (picks will be posted later) as well as baseball futures. I will also be making a few bets on the Over/Under lines, but these are the five lines I really like after looking over World Series odds. Go make lots of money off of my knowledge!

Arizona Diamondbacks - 16/1 - One of my favorites for this season, the Diamondbacks are going to be really good this year. Brandon Webb and Dan Haren is an unbelievable top two, and as groundball pitchers, having Orlando Hudson and Stephen Drew manning middle infield, they should both be studly once again. Micah Owings is a major sleeper and the offense features young bats like Stephen Drew, Chris Young, Conor Jackson and the veteran Eric Byrnes.

Atlanta Braves - 30/1 - Great value for the Braves. As I said in my Over/Under article, the Braves are the must underrated team in baseball. Their offense is going to be anchored by a Mark Teixeira/Chipper Jones/Brian McCann/Jeff Francoeur/Kelly Johnson offensive core, which is damn good. With John Smoltz and Tim Hudson at the top of the rotation, the Braves could really surprise this season.

Cleveland Indians - 12/1 - My pick to win the World Series, the Indians offer great value for a team that finished with the best record in all of baseball last year (with the Red Sox). This team should be as good or better than last years squad. Cliff Lee, Travis Harper and Grady Sizemore could all see major turnarounds and guys like Jeremy Sowers, Aaron Laffey and Adam Miller offer depth in the way of pitching. Anytime you can get a 12/1 line on this good of a team, you have to take it.

Milwaukee Brewers - 30/1 - Like the Braves, the Brewers are being overlooked by a lot of people. The offense is young and explosive with bats like Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun and Corey Hart. Ben Sheets, Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra provide immense upside. With a weak division outside of the Cubs, the Brewers could easily win the division and make a run at the title.

Oakland Athletics - 70/1 - Homer pick obviously, but I have to bet on my own team. There is hope however. If Rich Harden is healthy, a top of the rotation featuring Harden and Joe Blanton is extremely good. The bullpen is loaded this year with power arms and it is anchored by Huston Street. And the offense, while extremely young, is projected to be the 11th best offense in all of baseball. With the Angels hurting, if 2008 is finally the year the A's can stay healthy, anything is possible.

2008 NL Over/Under - David's Picks

Arizona Diamondbacks - 86.5 - OVER - This team won the West as a very young squad, picked up a stud starter in Dan Haren, and seemingly could only be better than the 90 win team from last year (unless the drop off from Jose Valverde to Brandon Lyon or Tony Pena is significant). Honestly, how could they not win 87 or more games? This bet kind of shocks me. Bet this with pride, bet this with confidence.

Atlanta Braves - 84.5 - OVER - Ryan and I agree wholeheartedly on this. The Braves have a chance to be one of the best teams in baseball, with an electric offense, a very solid defense (I'm going to say it - Mark Kotsay will be an upgrade on Andruw Jones - I said it), and a great pitching staff top to bottom. 84.5? This is the easiest bet in the NL in my opinion, even if they are in the tough NL East.

Chicago Cubs - 87.5 - UNDER - This is a hard team to predict for me. Very good lineup and a rotation that features three guys I really like at the top - Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and Rich Hill. However, this is another instinct team, and I just see them underperforming with not a lot of depth in the rotation and a weaker than average bullpen.

Cincinnati Reds - 79.5 - UNDER - How is this an 80+ win team? They could be great in a year or two, but their rotation is not good outside of Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo (on occasion). I'm not a fan of Francisco Cordero either, who had a ton of saves but got himself into a lot of precarious situations last year. I say they face injuries and their young pitchers do not take the leap they need, and finish in the mid 70's for wins.

Colorado Rockies - 82.5 - OVER - I just really like this team. I'm going to be perfectly honest, their lineup is full of guys who play the game the right way (not to sound like a scout). I think Jeff Francis and Aaron Cook will act as solid anchors, while Ubaldo Jiminez, Jason Hirsh, and Franklin Morales will do just enough to get them near the playoffs. 85 to 88 win team.

Florida Marlins - 68.5 - OVER - This team could go way over or way under. They are unbelievably young. They are unbelievably talented. If things rolled the right way, they could win around 75 games. If things don't, they win less than 60 (legitimately). I think they don't do either, but finish above 70.

Houston Astros - 72.5 - OVER - I think this team is going to surprise people, if only because they have a legitimately great offense. I think Michael Bourn will be a legit Rookie of the Year contender, and I think Roy Oswalt has a huge comeback year to give some legitimacy to their rotation. The rest of their rotation is unspectacular, if not outright bad, but I think they with their offense they'll be good enough to win 75 to 78 games.

Los Angeles Dodgers - 87.5 - UNDER - This is a very talented team with a very exciting lineup and a very solid starting rotation. Their bullpen is very good too, with the electric Jonathan Broxton setting up for the reliable Takashi Saito. Why did I choose under? I think the Rockies and Dbacks will both be better, and I don't think the Rockies win more than 88 games. Sorry guys, wrong division.

Milwaukee Brewers - 84.5 - OVER - If Ben Sheets and Yovani Gallardo can stay healthy, I think this team is a legitimate contender to be the best team in the NL. Of course that is a huge if, but I feel like 85 wins will be child's play for them in the mediocre NL Central.

New York Mets - 93.5 - UNDER - This team is already facing a lot of injuries, and if any of their big guys go down they haven't a shot to do much of anything. I like their rotation, but Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez are very, very old and could easily break down. I'm not a fan of their depth (it's quality, not quantity guys), and I think that 93.5 is way too high - especially in this division. Big disappointment.

Philadelphia Phillies - 87.5 - UNDER - Besides having Brad Lidge at the end of their bullpen, I like every thing about this team. Their lineup is full of great, classic style players like Chase Utley, Shane Victorino, and Jimmy Rollins, and has the biggest basher of them all in Ryan Howard to hit behind them. I think their rotation is very solid, and I like this team to contend for the East title with the Braves and Mets. But I think they fall a bit short of 88 wins, 85-86 like Ryan suggested.

Pittsburgh Pirates - 68.5 - UNDER - This team has some very good young talent in their rotation, but their lineup is not good. In fact, it's bad. Very bad. Unless Jason Bay comes back big time, Adam LaRoche turns his looping swing into a 40 homer one, and the tablesetters step up big time, this is a contender for the bottom feeder in the NL.

San Diego Padres - 84.5 - UNDER - Solid team with a potentially great rotation, as Jake Peavy and Chris Young are studs at the top, Greg Maddux and Randy Wolf can be solid, if not unspectacular, in the middle, and Mark Prior - well, he's a great buy low. He may give you nothing. He may be an absolute stud. Regardless, they need offense in a bad way, and in this division I just can't see them competing unless all of the cards fall for them.

San Francisco Giants - 71.5 - UNDER - This team is terrible. I feel very bad for Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, because they could lead the NL in K's and both have sub 2 ERA's, and still win only about 10 to 15 games combined. This team is going to be one of the worst in baseball.

St Louis Cardinals - 78.5 - UNDER - This is a team that gets 78.5 as their number because of Tony La Russa, Albert Pujols, and their reputation as a contender. Looking at their depth charts and who they are really, you see a different picture. This team WILL be under, and I see them as one of the easiest bets in the league.

Washington Nationals - 70.5 - OVER - How these guys only get 70.5 and St. Louis gets 78.5 I have no idea. I think this team is full of exciting talent. I'm a big fan of Ryan Zimmerman and I think their outfield could be superb with Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge performing to their talent levels and lowering the crazy levels. Plus, I think this is the year. I think Austin Kearns finally performs to where he should. They have a young and interesting rotation, and I like this team to surprise people with 75 to 77 wins.

2008 NL Over/Under - Ryan's Picks

Arizona Diamondbacks - 86.5 - OVER - I really like the Diamondbacks this year and they are one of the teams I will likely be laying money on (at 16-1) to win the World Series. They feature a well balanced attack, and despite the NL West being arguably the most competitive division in baseball, Arizona should be the favorites to win the NL Pennant.

Atlanta Braves - 84.5 - OVER - The most underrated team in baseball heading into the 2008 season, the Braves could easily win the NL East with a little luck in regards to health, which means their win total could approach 90. Another great bet at 30-1, keep an eye on the Braves this year.

Chicago Cubs - 87.5 - UNDER - Solid team but too many questions with the starting pitching, especially if they deal away youngsters like Sean Marshall and Sean Gallagher to get Brian Roberts. The offense will score plenty of runs, there is no doubting that, but I think 84-86 wins is more likely than 88+.

Cincinnati Reds - 79.5 - UNDER - This is a generous number for the Reds. They have one of the best systems in baseball and will be loaded with names like Bailey/Cueto/Votto/Bruce, but their time isn't here quite yet. 2009 will be bode better for these young Reds. I really like the Under here.

Colorado Rockies - 82.5 - UNDER - The Rockies are a tough team to crack this season. The team went on an unbelievable run to end last season but I think everyone can agree they were playing over their heads. They return the majority of that team, but things would have to go extremely well for the Rockies to compete in the NL West this year. Gotta take the Under.

Florida Marlins - 68.5 - OVER - The Marlins always seem to surprise and I think we will see more of the same this year. Young arms like Scott Olsen and Ricky Nolasco look to re emerge and the team features plenty of young talent across the roster. Florida should crack 70 wins.

Houston Astros - 72.5 - UNDER - Houston is going to have a really good offense this year, but the starting rotation is abysmal behind Roy Oswalt (who is fading himself). Terrible management has really run this team into the ground with little help on the horizon. I hope the team is classy enough to trade Mr. Oswalt if their playoff chances are gone by summer (which they will be).

Los Angeles Dodgers - 87.5 - OVER - Tough one, I like the Dodgers a lot and I think they can push the Diamondbacks so I am taking the over. 88-90 wins seems reasonable with a closely contested second place finish behind the Dbacks in the West.

Milwaukee Brewers - 84.5 - OVER - This team has the potential to go far if guys like Ben Sheets, Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra can show their stuff this season. Those three could propel the Brewers rotation to the top of the NL Central and the young core Milwaukee features on offense is very impressive.

New York Mets - 93.5 - UNDER - Pretty easy one for me here. I think the Mets could be the most overrated team in baseball and will struggle with the Phillies and Braves to capture the NL East. The team has big time names but little in the way of depth and that will catch up with them this season.

Philadelphia Phillies - 87.5 - UNDER - I think this will end up really close with the Phillies being in the 86 win area. Moving Brett Myers back to the rotation will really help, but I struggle to see the team taking a major step forward this year.

Pittsburgh Pirates - 68.5 - OVER - A return to form by Jason Bay would do wonders for this team, but Pittsburgh fans are still in for a long season. 70 wins is a real possibility, but this is a coin flip in my mind.

San Diego Padres - 84.5 - UNDER - I see the Padres falling back just a tad this year in such a competitive division. the Diamondbacks and Dodgers are the class of the division with the Padres a tier below.

San Francisco Giants - 71.5 - UNDER - Easy one here, and one of the best in the National League. The Giants will be fighting with the Orioles for the worst record in baseball. Brian Sabean is the most overrated GM in baseball and this team is in major trouble. Noah Lowry is awful, Barry Zito was the biggest mistake in baseball history and Matt Cain/Tim Lincecum can only shoulder so much.

St Louis Cardinals - 78.5 - UNDER -I can't see this team fighting to stay at .500, I think the Cardinals really fall back this year and shut Mr. Pujols down early so he can rehab his elbow and be ready for the 2009 season. Unfortunately Kyle Lohse isn't the answer.

Washington Nationals -70.5 - OVER - A move to their new ballpark should give this offense a boost, as should the return of Nick Johnson. Washington surprisingly has some very solid young talent and they should best the 71 win mark this season.

2008 AL Over/Under - David's Picks

Baltimore Orioles - 65.5 - UNDER - Given optimal circumstances, I'd find it unlikely that the Orioles could win 66 games or more. They simply do not have the talent to achieve at this point. Given that they are facing a bevy of injuries and are in the toughest division in baseball, I see them being the worst team in the league.

Boston Red Sox - 93.5 - UNDER - As Ryan said, this team has the potential to be one of the best teams in baseball. They could easily win 100 games this year, no doubt about it. Then why do I have them picked to finish on the under side? Their rotation is currently very banged up and/or questionable, with Josh Beckett (he of the extremely spotty health throughout his career) already hurting, Curt Schilling on the sixty day DL, and end-of-the-rotation guys Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz being extremely talented, but still prone to meltdowns like most youngsters are. They could easily score 1,000 runs, but in this division I see them falling short.

Chicago White Sox - 79.5 - UNDER - The lineup is either on the decline or coming off a bad year. Their rotation is very talented at the top with Mark Buehrle and Javier Vazquez, but followed by the aging inconsistency of Jose Contreras and the young duo of John Danks and Gavin Floyd, it doesn't look to have the balance you would hope for out of a true contender. With the Tigers featuring the best offense in baseball (I don't care who disagrees) and the Indians being the best all around team, I just don't see the White Sox winning more than 75 games.

Cleveland Indians - 88.5 - OVER - This is, in my opinion, the best team in baseball. They are the best mixture of offense, defense, and pitching. They are young and experienced, and they have some of the best upside in the entirety of the MLB. They nearly beat the Red Sox last year in the ALCS, and that was with arguably their two best hitters in Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore having "off" years. I predict that they will both have big years, and the Indians will destroy the 88.5 total.

Detroit Tigers - 93.5 - UNDER - I think that this is the hardest team to predict. They could score 1,100 runs and have one of the single best offenses ever. They could also easily miss the playoffs with an iffy pitching staff. I think it will be the latter.

Kansas City Royals - 71.5 - OVER - Even though they are in a pretty solid division, I think the Royals will surprise people. I think their young offense will start to pick it up, and I think their pitching will surprise people. I think both Brian Bannister and Zach Greinke will step up, and Gil Meche will be a solid anchor. Nowhere near a playoff team, but I see them winning 74 to 76 games.

Los Angeles Angels - 91.5 - OVER - With the injuries to John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar, I'd be concerned about this team. Well, if it weren't for the fact that they play in the AL West and they get to play the A's and the Rangers for a large portion of their schedule. Lackey and Escobar will both make it back, but they'll be in fine shape before then.

Minnesota Twins - 72.5 - OVER - I have a strange feeling about this team. Call it my gut pick but I really think this team will surprise people and definitely go over, maybe near 80 wins and finish third in the division. I think Francisio Liriano comes back in a big way, the rest of their rotation will be solid, and their offense will be surprisingly effective - like all Twins lineups seem to be.

New York Yankees - 93.5 - OVER - This is more a reflection of what I think of Baltimore (be terrible) and Boston (be hurt) this year. I think they have a great lineup, a solid if unspectacular rotation, and a typically solid bullpen. I think they will be not far over, but in the 94 to 96 range.

Oakland Athletics - 73.5 - UNDER - I look at their roster and question how they will be that much better than Baltimore. They will be in the 68 to 70, I believe, but their best players could get hurt very easily or be traded very quickly. They have a lot of young talent on their roster, but I think in two years they'll be good. This year? Not so much.

Seattle Mariners - 86.5 - OVER - This is going to come off as me being a big homer, but I think an 88 win team (even one that had a negative run differential, but extremely solid in one win games) who replaces bums Horacio Ramirez and Jeff Weaver with Erik Bedard and Carlos Silva could win more games. Their offense is a bit on the weak side, but they can produce runs. If they can get a bit of power from youngster Wladimir Balentien and Jeff Clement, or trade them for a solid power bat, I could easily see them sneaking into the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Rays - 73.5 - OVER - This team is exciting. I look at their roster, and there is so much talent. Their offense has some studs already, plus guys like Evan Longoria who could be absolutely incredible. Their rotation has young studs like Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza, and I like James Shields to be more like his first half self than his second half. Up and coming, but wrong division to contend. 76 to 78 wins.

Texas Rangers - 74.5 - UNDER - This team needs Ian Kinsler, Josh Hamilton, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia to produce big numbers to have any chance. I think only Hamilton does that, and unless all three of them do they have very little chance to overcome their mediocre at best pitching staff.

Toronto Blue Jays - 85.5 - UNDER - In a lot of divisions, this team would have a chance. But with the Yankees and Red Sox ruling the roost, this team is limited to third place at best. They have a solid overall roster, but they need some power bats on their corners. Lyle Overbay and Scott Rolen have better shots at being hurt for half the season than at hitting 30 home runs. 80 wins, tops.

2008 AL Over/Under - Ryan's Picks

Baltimore Orioles - 65.5 - UNDER - This team is really, really bad. They won 69 games last season with Erik Bedard and Miguel Tejada, so 100 losses certainly seems within the realm of reason. Brian Roberts is likely to get traded, Troy Patton is done for the year and Adam Loewen is having arm woes once again so this could get very ugly.

Boston Red Sox - 93.5 - OVER - Arguably the best team in baseball along with the Indians, the Red Sox are solid across the board with Manny Ramirez in a contract year and David Ortiz looking to rebound after a sub par season. This team is loaded with both youth and veterans while I wouldn't put money on a number this high, Boston definitely has the talent to win 95+ games.

Chicago White Sox - 79.5 - OVER - If this team stays healthy they could surprise and win 85 games or so. They have some young pitching in John Danks and Gavin Floyd that will be key, and the health of veteran bats like Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye will determine how far this team can go.

Cleveland Indians - 88.5 - OVER - This seems at least five games too few for the Indians who return a core that tied with the Red Sox for the best record in all of baseball (96 wins). Cleveland should win the division handily, this is my favorite bet in the American League.

Detroit Tigers - 93.5 - UNDER - Vegas really likes the Tigers. Everyone knows about the offense, but the starting pitching and bullpen just have too many question marks for this team to challenge the Indians, they should finish in the 88-win range

Kansas City Royals - 71.5 - OVER - Finally the Royals are showing some signs of life. Billy Butler and Alex Gordon are studs and a solid core of role players around them mean this team may actually have a respectable offense. The starting pitching is below average but improving and I see 74-76 wins for the Royals this year.

Los Angeles Angels - 91.5 UNDER - This team could be in major trouble if their starting pitching doesn't get healthy. Lucky for them they are in the weakest division in baseball, but with John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar both starting the season on the disabled list, it will be tough for the Angels to reach the 92- win mark. 86-88 wins seems more likely, and that will still be plenty to capture the AL West.

Minnesota Twins - 72.5 - UNDER - The health of Francisco Liriano is obviously going to be very important for the Twins this year. The team has numerous youngsters that could carry Minnesota to the 75 win range, but I just don't see that happening this year with a lack of pitching and an unproven offense.

New York Yankees - 93.5 - UNDER - This one is really tough for me to call. The Yankees are going to be good, and all the Yankee haters out there are being pretty ridiculous in my opinion. But I have a feeling the Yanks will be in that 91-92 win range and I just have a really hard time saying they will win 94 times this season.

Oakland Athletics - 73.5 - OVER - Most projection systems have the A's in the 78 win range and I tend to agree with those projections. There is a much better chance that Oakland exceeds the 78 win mark then vice versa.

Seattle Mariners - 86.5 - UNDER - Erik Bedard and Carlos Silva will improve the pitching staff, but the offense is very weak and the Mariners were lucky to win as many games (88) as they did last season. 82-83 wins seems more likely.

Tampa Bay Rays - 73.5 - OVER - Tough division, exciting young talent. That is the story with the Rays this year, but there is simply too much talent for Tampa Bay to stay down any longer. Look for a very good year with a win total in the high 70's and watch out in the coming seasons, this team will be dangerous.

Texas Rangers - 74.5 - UNDER - The Rangers are not going to be very good next year, even in the American League West. The offense needs Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler to stay healthy otherwise the Rangers record could get ugly.

Toronto Blue Jays - 85.5 - UNDER - Playing in the AL East really hurts the Blue Jays. They have a very solid but unspectacular squad that should win 80 games easily. Similar to the Yankees though, I just have a hard time with this one and thinking the team can break the over number.