Pedro out 4-6 weeks

Mets starting pitcher Pedro Martinez was placed on the DL by the Mets today after leaving his start on Tuesday with a pulled hamstring. I've said before the Mets look to be overrated, and their pitching is very average, even with Johan Santana. Pedro's injury means Mike Pelfrey is now in the rotation for good (Bad news) and the team will now likely sign an arm like Claudio Vargas to fill out the rotation (Not good news). John Maine and Oliver Perez likely won't repeat their success from 2007 and Orlando Hernandez is not the answer. Don't be surprised if Pedro does little to help the Mets this year, and it wouldn't be a shock to see the Mets finish third in the NL East.

More NCAA Tourney thoughts

This man made me money!

Well before David and I start revealing our MLB predictions, I thought I would touch on the NCAA Tournament again. I've been quite busy ripping chunks of my hair out watching the games, and I've featured mixed success financially. My big win came last Wednesday on the Louisville-Tennessee game in the Sweet Sixteen. Tennessee game into the game playing awful, and Chris Lofton was nursing a hurt leg. Add onto this that Louisville came into the matchup hot, hot, hot and this was an easy one. Louisville was only a 2.5 point favorite and I hit my biggest win of the tournament on this one. Go Cardinals! Unfortunately I didn't pull the trigger on another game I really liked -North Carolina as an 8 point favorite over Washington State, but I still made out well for the day. Just remember, Washington State is perenially overrated!

The following day wasn't as kind to yours truly, and all the blame can be placed on myself! I've never been so frustrated after a bet as I was after this. Texas-Stanford was a great bet....the game was basically a home game for Texas, being played in Houston, and the Pac-10 had basically layed a goose egg all tournament. Both Texas and the Big 12 looked good, yet the Longhorns were only a 2.5 point favorite. I was poised to bet this game big for several days and yet I psyched myself out on the fact it was too easy of a bet. I reversed psychologied myself out of the bet and instead made an impulse bet on Wisconsin against an upstart Davidson squad. Well, I learned two lessons...First, don't bet against Stephen Curry, the kid's a stud. Second, stay true to your instincts and don't go off of impulses when it comes to betting. I was confident in Texas all along, and if I would have paired it with Louisville I would have made out like a bandit, ahhh live and learn I suppose!


As a side note, I also liked North Carolina over Louisville (Carolina as an 8 point favorite) and Davidson to cover 9.5 points against Kansas, but was too gun shy to bet either after my Wisconsin fiasco. But now we are down to the Final Four. Two games to choose from with all four No. 1 seeds making it for the first time ever! Kansas-North Carolina is going to be one hell of a game, and one that could go either way. The Tar Heels are favored by three points, and I lean towards Kansas to win outright in an up and down game, but this is a tough game that I will likely stay away from. Memphis-UCLA is a different story as the Tigers come in as two point favorites and that's a line I really like. Memphis absolutely outplayed a Texas team that not only beat Stanford, but also beat UCLA (at UCLA) along with Kansas and Tennessee earlier in the season. The Pac-10 has looked awful this tournament, and I think Memphis will be heading to the title game. Lesson on this one - The opening line came out as a 'pick em' shortly after the Tigers secured their spot in the Final Four, but the next day the oddsmakers fixed their mistake and quickly moved it to Memphis (-2). The big bettors likely got their money in quick while Memphis wasn't giving up any points, and that would have been an awesome bet, so the lesson is - The early bird gets the worm!

Anyways, betting aside, my predictions are these:

Memphis 78 UCLA 72
Kansis 81 North Carolina 78

With the title game shaping up something like this:

Kansas 77 Memphis 76

Overrated - Albert Pujols and Dan Uggla

I figured Ryan was covering the underrated side, I'll take the over on this one.

Don't get me wrong, when 100% Pujols is as good of a hitter as there is this year. However, considering he plays at a position with a lot of solid players and tons of value picks out there, that he's hurting already, and that he plays of a team that will struggle to contend, I see him a very weak first rounder at best. Personally, I wouldn't take him with a top 10 pick, and although it would be difficult, I may even let him slip by given a late second rounder in a standard ten team draft. I personally see the Cardinals faltering big time and shutting Pujols down earlier rather than later. Buyers beware!

Of course, that is one pick that everyone has definitely started leaning towards, but here's another one: Dan Uggla. Going on average 75th in CBS standard drafts, they currently have him ranked as the 6th best second baseman. Don't get me wrong, getting 30 homer power out of second base is great, but at the cost of a sub .250 batting average? Unless it's a OBP/OPS league (where he gets a bit more value because he walks), I would definitely look past him at the Kelly Johnson/Ian Kinsler/Howie Kendrick tier.

All that said, I think he will drop off big time in his two biggest categories as well: runs and homers. Last year he led second baseman in runs and homers, but that was before big Miguel Cabrera left his place hitting behind Uggla. Now pitchers can either pitch around Uggla or pitch him more aggresively. I foresee him dropping under 25 homers, and maybe even below 90 runs. Still solid numbers, but would you rather take a guy like that with limited upside, or a Kinsler who could legitimately go 20/20 with 100 runs and 100 RBI's no problem, and has upside for even more. I'd take the upside every time in that spot.

Also, to note - Ryan is going to rue the day he took Pat Burrell over David Wright in that spot. RUEEEEEE THE DAY!!!!

Baseball is Here!!

Well it's 3a.m. PST here in Vegas and the Oakland-Boston game just got underway from Japan. This is the best month-long stretch of sports of the year. Not only do we have March Madness, but the start of the baseball season, the upcoming Masters golf tournament, along with the NFL Draft at the end of April to cap things off. But since baseball is on tv, I thought I would post my team of sluggers for my HR Pool this year. The competition works as such:

Pick 6 players from the following list: Alex Rodriguez, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Carlos Pena, Adam Dunn, Matt Holliday, Jim Thome, David Ortiz, Lance Berkman, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Bruan, Carlos Beltran, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, Albert Pujols (Top 15 HR hitters from last season). Then pick any other 9 players to round out a 15-player team. For an extra fee, teams can also select a reserve hitter to replace one of the original 15 half way through the season. This is how my team turned out.

1. Alex Rodriguez

2. Prince Fielder

3. Ryan Howard

4. Miguel Cabrera

5. Adam Dunn

6. David Ortiz

7. Aramis Ramirez

8. Nick Swisher

9. Vladmir Guerrero

10. Justin Morneau

11. Mark Teixeria

12. Brad Hawpe

13. Pat Burrell

14. Andruw Jones

15. Travis Hafner

UTILITY REPLACEMENT PLAYER: Paul Konerko

My last two spots came down to Burrell/Hawpe battling it out with David Wright and Manny Ramirez. I love David Wright (who doesn't) but I see him more as a 25 home run guy than a high 30's type, where as Pat the Bat has 40 home run power in him. As for Manny, I think he is due for a big year as he is in a contract year, but his age is a major concern and I'm not sure he will break the 35 homer mark. I could see a .300-30-120 year for Manny, but I feel his age/injury risk is too much and Hawpe could really bust out for 35-38 homers in Coors Field. The winner should take home around $1300 so hopefully my boys come through in a big way!

Capuano Out - Parra In?

Manny Parra

According to The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, Brewers SP Chris Capuano has a torn UCL (ulnar collateral ligament) and is out for the forseable future. It is very possible Capuano will need his second Tommy John surgery. Obviously this means it is safe to drop the lefty, but more importantly, the injury has major ramifications on the Brewers rotation. Reportedly, the rotation (with Gallardo on the DL) will be Ben Sheets-Jeff Suppan-Manny Parra-Dave Bush-Claudio Vargas, with Carlos Villanueva getting optioned down to AAA. With a rotation spot now locked up, at least to start the season, Manny Parra needs to be picked up in all leagues. He had a lights out spring and has the stuff to be a top of the rotation starter. Between AA and AAA last year, Parra posted a 2.45 ERA in 106 innings of work and was impressive during his brief stint in the majors. If he is still available, now is the time to grab Parra.

Underrated - Jeff Francis

I'll be taking a look at the second round of the NCAA Tournament later, but I thought I would get back on track with a little fantasy baseball talk.

I've been in some trade talks, and one guy I am targeting as a cheap, underrated option is the Rockies' Jeff Francis. Often overlooked because he pitches in Colorado, Francis is a bargain that offers 15-win potential and the upside to build on his past two seasons of work. Taken #9 overall in the 2002 draft by the Rockies, Francis breezed through the minors, dominating at every level at a young age. He posted an impressive 2.71 ERA in 346 minor league innings, with a 1.00 WHIP and a near 5:1 K/BB ratio. Rated as the #24 prospect in baseball by Baseball America in 2005, Francis won 14 games as rookie for the Rockies, but struggled to the tune of a 1.62 WHIP and a .311 batting average against. 2006 was better for Francis as he reached the 199 IP mark and posted a 1.29 WHIP. And while his WHIP and ERA went up slightly this past season, Francis improved his strikeout rate and lowered his walks and ended up winning 17 games for Colorado. The Rockies will be a solid squad in 2008, meaning Francis should again win 15+ but several other factors point to a 'breakout' season for Francis in '08. First, his improving K/BB ratio point to good things to come. Second, while his groundball ratio has stayed roughly the same the last several years, his .321 BABIP was above average and out of whack with the defense behind him. The Rockies own arguably the best defense in the NL and maybe in all of the majors, and as a team they have up a .298 BABIP. One can expect Francis' BABIP to close that gap, which bodes well for all of his numbers. Third, Francis is in his 27-year-old season, so the Canadian native could really start to peak.

So in summation, don't forget about Francis just because he pitches in Colorado. While Coors Field is still an offensive park, it is no longer the home run haven it once was. I could easily see Francis winning 15-17 games with a sub 4.0 ERA, 170 strikeouts and a WHIP around 1.25. Great value for a guy going on average as the 113th pick in CBS drafts.

NCAA Tournament 1st Round Thoughts

How dare you bet against the Cardinal!


Well I tried to save David's bracket, but he wouldn't listen and picked Cornell to upset the mighty Cardinal! Never bet against Stanford, they have covered their last four tournament games, ride them all the way! The early line for their second round matchup has Stanford at -3 against Marquette, and I like the Cardinal again! Another trend I've noticed during the first two days of the Big Dance is taking the Under in the first half and the Over in the second. Teams are really seeming to feel out their opponent early on and then exploding for big points after the half. Just a random tidbit after betting quite a bit these first two days.

As for my first two days (bracket and betting) starting with Thursday - A group of us met up at the Hard Rock where they turned the Joint (where they hold concerts) into a gigantic March Madness orgy! So I officially hate OJ Mayo and USC. Not only did I have them making a run to the Elite Eight, but all of us also had big time bucks riding on them Thursday night, but their complete impotence in regards to rebounding left our whole group officially hating Tim Floyd. UNLV looked great and we made a great pick there, but got completely burned after picking the Under for the game and losing out by half a point! And this after Kent State scored a tournament record low 10 points in the first half! Crazy! Baylor looked awful despite the numbers saying they should have put up a good fight against Purdue, and that one stung the pocket book a bit, Doh! I didn't put any money on Georgia, but I do feel sort of bad for them after their unbelievable run this year. After being up big early against Xavier, the Bulldogs simply couldn't hold on, but I still salute you Georgia! As for Xavier, they are nasty tough, don't sleep on these guys. Pittsburgh and Notre Dame both looked awfully impressive, showing just how tough the Big East really is. It ranked #5 in regards to Conference RPI, but Big East teams are really physical and they had a very impressive first two days, going 7-1 overall, wowza! Finally, Arizona was busted out by Joe Alexander and West Virginia, we had a large sum riding on the Wildcats which would have saved our day, but alas, we finished losers for Thursday :( * Side Note - We did win a free night stay at the Hard Rock and a free cabana at the pool, so value wise we actually made out ok! I also put $60 on red and hit, which then paid for a tasty free lunch at Pink Taco!

Friday featured big time upsets, but luckily I ended the day slightly ahead thanks to North Carolina covering their -25.5 line. The biggest surprise for me had to be the crazy comeback staged by Villanova, I had Clemson making a run to the Sweet Sixteen, so my bracket isn't in the greatest of shape :( UCONN was a huge bust this year, one of the few downers for the Big East, but an early injury to starting point guard AJ Price played a major part in the Huskies loss. If not for UCONN's heartbreak, the Big East would have gone 8-0 for the first two days, just thought I would re-iterate how impressive the Big East has been. Indiana's poor performance did surprise me, I thought they would handle Arkansas, but they looked terrible and with DJ White and Eric Gordon heading to the draft, and the coaching situation a complete mess, Indiana looks to be in big trouble next year. Mississippi came through for me with a late run against Oregon but overall a much slower day in terms of betting for me since I had to work tonight, but a much bigger day in regards to upsets and excitement. I look forward to an exciting second round!

As for a quick update on my bracket, so far I have started really bad, going 21-12 in the first round, but 7 out of 8 of my Elite Eight teams are still alive so I could still make up some major ground later. Since I haven't posted my picks, here is what my Final Four looks like this -
Tennessee
Kansas
Texas
UCLA
I have Tennessee squaring off against UCLA in the National Championship game with the Bruins emerging victorious in a high scoring, exciting final game. I really like Tennessee this year, but I think UCLA will prove to be too much. So there's my college basketball update, hopefully I will fare a little better financially in the second round this weekend!